Impact Of American Recovery And Reinvestment Act Pdf 2011
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- New CBO Report Finds Up to Two Million People Still Owe Their Jobs to the Recovery Act
- Preparing for the Next Recession: Lessons from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
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Chodorow-Reich et al. We find that the ARRA state fiscal relief has indeed had a positive effect on gross state products. We make use of the fact that the ARRA can be seen as a natural experiment.
Expenditure levels differ per state, and this allows us to check whether states that received more due to ARRA have reached more favorable changes in their economic activity. This enables a cross-section econometric strategy to estimate the effects of intergovernmental transfers on economic activity. An ordinary least squares OLS estimation of the relationship between the size of the stimulus and its effect on the economy might therefore understate this effect. We address this endogeneity problem following Chodorow-Reich et al.
The ARRA stimulus a state received also depended on these pre-recession transfers, and the identification strategy is to consider the cross-state variation in stimulus spending that results from pre-recession differences in Medicaid transfers. The differences in real state growth rates are large.
For example, Michigan's GSP decreased by 9. We show that the additional federal Medicaid transfers had a positive effect on economic activity that was statistically significant and economically substantial.
This positive effect was robust over time. There is a large volume of literature discussing the economic impact of the ARRA. For a survey see Council of Economic Advisers Four papers use a similar approach as Chodorow-Reich et al. Carlino and Inman find similar positive effects using a structural vector auto regression approach, while Leduc and Wilson show that ARRA grants did not crowd-out state government highway spending.
Finally, Seligman evaluates the way state and local finances are supported. Following Chodorow-Reich et al. Additionally, we account for the effects of a series of control variables that may influence GSP growth or Medicaid spending. We discuss these control variables in more detail in the next section. The descriptive statistics of the dependent, explanatory, instrumental, and control variables are given in Table 1. Census Bureau data. We nonetheless consider GSP growth for the whole of , instead of the period from February to February The first reason to do so is that discussions on this law in the freshly-elected Congress started in late , so there might have been some anticipation effects justifying this choice.
The other reason is a more practical one as the BEA reports available for this period only provided yearly data. When we consider how the effects of FMAP outlays evolve over time, we also take into account how GSP per capita developed over the years to Finally, in the specification in which we estimate the effect of the FMAP outlays on economic growth, we replace the dependent variable in Eq.
Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board. Data on these outlays are taken from Chodorow-Reich et al. These control variables at least partially capture the effects that indicate more liberal states percentage vote share Kerry — the share of votes cast for Senator Kerry in the presidential election or states with a higher degree of unionization percentage union share , [BLS b ] have larger Medicaid programs and more social security spending, which influences not only the instrumental, but also the dependent and explanatory variables.
Finally, we include regional dummies representing the division used by the U. Census Bureau. The results of the first-stage regressions are shown in Table 2. Since we have used more recently revised data for some of the variables, the estimates differ slightly from those presented in Chodorow-Reich et al.
Note that the estimations are precise high R 2 s , significant the estimated coefficients for the instrumental variable are statistically significant even at the 0. The second-stage regression results are presented in Table 3 Specification 5 is discussed in the next subsection. The effect of FMAP outlays on economic activity in Specification 4 is precisely estimated, with a p -value not reported in the table- equal to 0.
This is, however, a lower bound of the effect of the FMAP outlays on GSP, as it does not take into account the potential effects of the stimulus on economic activity beyond We discuss the durability of state fiscal relief in the next subsection. This comprehensive specification also gives the most accurate estimate for the fiscal multiplier, an estimate of 1. The direct effect consists of the states that can avoid spending cuts and layoffs, while its indirect effects depend on how the nongovernment-related sectors are affected.
In the previous subsection we presented the estimates of the effect of the FMAP outlays on economic activity in The estimates of these effects are presented in Fig. Note: This figure shows the second stage FMAP normalized by population and-older outlays coefficients, using Specification 4 , where the dependent variable is change in GSP per capita and-older between and the year indicated on the horizontal axis.
Source: Own calculations using data from BEA , , , , , BLS a , b , , , , , , , , , Chodorow-Reich et al. Figure 1 shows that the positive effect of the stimulus remained statistically significant until , that is, long into the first term of Barack Obama.
Moreover, the estimated positive effects are increasing until Interestingly, however, not only the statistical significance, but also the positive trend of the positive effects of the stimulus changes after Firstly, it indicates that, for efficiency reasons, it is important to consider a short time period when estimating the effects of a policy measure in this case the effects in , as disturbances accumulate over time, making the estimates less precise.
Secondly, it may indicate that the positive effect of FMAP outlays on economic activity at the start of the Obama presidency did not last longer than his second term as a president of the U.
So far, following Chodorow-Reich et al. In this subsection we change the dependent variable into economic growth to provide further evidence that the ARRA worked as an economic stimulus. The estimation results are reported as Specification 6 in Table 3. They find, however, a positive effect of state fiscal relief on employment figures.
States can use additional transfers to prevent tax increases and budget cuts, saving jobs and avoiding further GSP contraction, without the delays usually accompanying public expenditure programs. Thus, our results further strengthen by Chodorow-Reich et al.
Population figures for each of the years to are taken from BLS a , b , , , , , , , , , for the year from BLS American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of Accessed 17 Mar Widespread economic growth across states in Bureau of Economic Advisers.
Accessed 22 Sept Widespread economic growth in Bureau of Economic Analysis. Widespread but slower growth in Broad growth across states in Information industry group led growth across states in the fourth quarter. Accessed 22 September Regional and state unemployment, annual averages. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Union members in Carlino, G. Fiscal stimulus in economic unions: what role for states? Tax Policy and the Economy, 30 1 , 1— The economic impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act five years later — final report to congress.
Council of Economic Advisers. Chodorow-Reich, G. Does state fiscal relief during recessions increase employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 3 , — Google Scholar. Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: dataset. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Data compendium edition. Conley, T. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: solely a government jobs program?
Journal of Monetary Economics, 60 5 , — Feyrer, J. Did the stimulus stimulate? Real time estimates of the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Accessed 11 Sept Flores, R. Accessed 27 Feb Government Accountability Office. Accessed 26 Mar Leduc, S. Are State governments roadblocks to federal stimulus? American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 9 2 , — Budget processes in the states.
New CBO Report Finds Up to Two Million People Still Owe Their Jobs to the Recovery Act
This estimate, by Congress' non-partisan economic and budget analysts, is more comprehensive than the , jobs that ARRA recipients reported in January, CBO explains. ARRA succeeded in its primary goal of protecting the economy during the worst of the recession. Since then, the Act's job impact has gradually declined as the economy recovers and certain provisions expire. While the report focuses primarily on the fourth quarter of , CBO also includes new projections of the Recovery Act's jobs impact through It projects that in the current quarter the first quarter of , there are , to 1.
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Not a MyNAP member yet? Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only perks. Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Alternative provisions for a transportation stimulus pro- gram that might increase benefits i. Department of Transportation U.
Preparing for the Next Recession: Lessons from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Chodorow-Reich et al. We find that the ARRA state fiscal relief has indeed had a positive effect on gross state products. We make use of the fact that the ARRA can be seen as a natural experiment. Expenditure levels differ per state, and this allows us to check whether states that received more due to ARRA have reached more favorable changes in their economic activity. This enables a cross-section econometric strategy to estimate the effects of intergovernmental transfers on economic activity.
Because HIT represents an increasingly essential tool in public health practice, how ARRA alters the environment for public health policy and practice is of crucial importance. There is wide consensus regarding the potential of HIT, especially the electronic health record EHR , to improve the quality and efficiency of clinical care and to help the nation overcome the fragmented nature of the health-care system. Signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, , ARRA marks one of the most sweeping pieces of economic legislation ever enacted, including hundreds of billions of dollars in new health and heath-care spending.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ARRA was an economic stimulus package to save and create jobs and invest in infrastructure, education, health, and renewable energy. In total, NHSC saw its workforce rise from 3, to 7, over this period—an increase of percent Pathman and Konrad, Due to increased funding, the estimated number of people receiving care from NHSC clinicians rose from 4 million to 9 million during this timeframe Pathman and Konrad, During this period, NHSC made several programmatic changes that facilitated expansion.
It was a necessary follow-up to President George W. Most of its impact occurred by
Data in this graph are copyrighted. Please review the copyright information in the series notes before sharing. Source: U. Q1 4.
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Когда службы безопасности выдворяли его из страны, он успел сказать несколько слов Стратмору, причем произнес их с ледяным спокойствием: - Мы все имеем право на тайну. И я постараюсь это право обеспечить. ГЛАВА 7 Мозг Сьюзан лихорадочно работал: Энсей Танкадо написал программу, с помощью которой можно создавать шифры, не поддающиеся взлому.